When is Australia Q2 Retail Sales and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Jul 11, 2023

Early Thursday, around 01:30 AM GMT, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's Retail Sales for the second quarter (Q2) of 2023. Also likely to entertain AUD/USD traders around the same time is the nation’s Trade Balance data for June.

Market consensus suggests a deterioration in the trade numbers for June while the Retail Sales registered -0.6% QoQ figures in the last quarter. It should be noted that the Aussie Retail Sales for June marked a surprise -0.8% contraction versus 0.0% expected and 0.8% prior at the latest.

The Aussie Retail Sales figures appear more important for the AUD/USD pair this time after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest pause to the rate hike trajectory, as well as fresh talks of policy pivot in Australia backed by the previous disappointment from the Aussie data.

Ahead of the data, Analysts at ANZ said, “We expect a deeply negative retail result and a trade surplus of $10 billion.

AUD/USD stays pressured at the lowest level in two months, around 0.6530 by the press time, as it braces for the Aussie data during early Thursday, after bearing the burden of the strong US Dollar and disappointment from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the last two days. In doing so, the Aussie pair also justifies the fresh fears of the US-China tension and strong US Treasury bond yields.

That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, as well as receding monetary policy divergence between the RBA and the Fed, may seek validation from today’s Aussie Retail Sales data. Hence, a surprise recovery in the key statistics may allow the AUD/USD to lick its wounds at the multi-day low.

It should be noted, however, that the Aussie data may have a knee-jerk reaction for the AUD/USD pair as traders are more interested in a slew of US data unveiling the activity and employment clues.

Technically, a daily closing beneath the 10-month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance near 0.6590, directs the AUD/USD bears toward the yearly low marked in May around 0.6460.

AUD/USD licks its wounds at two-month low around mid-0.6500s ahead of key Australia, US data

AUD/USD Forecast: Looking at 0.6500 and below

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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